A new report predicts that under the right conditions, space tourism could become a boom industry, generating $1.6 billion in revenue over the next decade.
The report, 'Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market Demand,' was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation and Space Florida, and produced by The Tauri Group.
It breaks the suborbital reusable vehicle (SRV) industry into eight markets, among which commercial human spaceflight (aka space tourism) is dominant, accounting for 80 percent of predicted trips.
That market is driven by extremely wealthy "space enthusiasts," 925 of whom already have made reservations to fly into space. In the growth scenario outlined in the report, that number could climb to 11,000 over the next ten years.
The more conservative baseline scenario predicts 3,600 seats on suborbital flights will be filled, generating $600 million. The constrained scenario, calculated based on shrinking budgets, predicts 2,000, for $300 million.
The growth forecast is based on a scenario in which "Commercial Human Spaceflight has a transformative effect on consumer behavior," leading to more interest in the industry.
The numbers are based on The Tauri Group's survey of wealthy individuals, polling of suborbital researchers, and open source materials including market studies and government budgets. Its writers estimate that of interested individuals with the necessary funds, 40 percent will actually fly.
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